Institutional Trust and Governance Effectiveness as Mediators in Transforming Digital Maturity into Post-War Infrastructure Recovery

Abstract

The post-war recovery of Ukraine’s economy is accompanied by profound institutional transformations that require effective public governance mechanisms capable of ensuring infrastructure reconstruction, improving government effectiveness, and strengthening institutional trust. In this context, the digital transformation of the public sector is considered one of the key factors in building a resilient system of public governance, reinforcing institutional trust, and enhancing the effectiveness of public policy for infrastructure recovery. The purpose of this study is to identify and empirically assess the relationships between the digital maturity of public governance, institutional trust, government effectiveness, and the outcomes of post-war infrastructure recovery, as well as to determine the role of institutional trust and governance effectiveness as mediators in transforming digital governance into recovery-oriented economic dynamics. The empirical basis of the research consists of international institutional indicators, in particular the E-Government Development Index as a measure of the digital maturity of public administration, together with indicators of institutional trust and government effectiveness in Ukraine for the period 2018–2025. The research methodology combines a log-linear regression model with a dummy variable for the wartime period, mediation analysis, and structural equation modeling estimated using the maximum likelihood method. The goodness-of-fit of the model was evaluated using the Comparative Fit Index, Tucker–Lewis Index, root mean square error of approximation, and standardized root mean square residual. The results demonstrate a statistically significant positive effect of the digital maturity of public governance on institutional trust (β = 0.81; p < 0.05) and government effectiveness (β = 0.74; p < 0.05). It was found that institutional trust and government effectiveness act as mediating mechanisms through which the digital transformation of public administration influences the effectiveness of infrastructure recovery. The findings confirm that the development of digital instruments of public governance contributes to strengthening the institutional resilience of the state and creates the preconditions for effective post-war infrastructural revitalization.