Adaptive and Sustainable Supply Chain Management under Systemic Instability: Evidence from the COVID-19 Pandemic and the Ukraine Conflict

Abstract

The analytical examination will concentrate on elucidating transformations within supply chain management systems precipitated by crisis phenomena spanning the period from 2020 through 2024. The principal objective of this investigation is to conduct a comparative assessment of adaptive strategies employed by logistics systems under the conditions of both the COVID-19 pandemic and armed conflict in Ukraine. The methodological framework underpinning this research is grounded in a comprehensive approach that synthesizes quantitative examination of statistical indicators with qualitative evaluation of managerial practices. The results of the study demonstrate fundamental differences in the mechanisms of supply chain adaptation to different types of crises. The COVID-19 pandemic allowed for gradual adaptation with the possibility of recovery planning: companies had time to reorganize routes, search for alternative suppliers, and implement digital solutions. Military operations in Ukraine required an immediate response and a radical restructuring of logistics networks: companies were forced to move warehouses, change transportation corridors and ensure the safety of their staff within days. According to an analysis of sea freight rates, the cost of container transportation increased from $2,100 in July 2020 to $1,200 in November 2021. In the structure of Ukrainian imports in 2022, road transport accounted for 64% of the total value of all imported transportation, while in 2021 this figure did not exceed 35%. According to international technology reports, the introduction of digital twins in supply chain management increased from 5% of companies in 2020 to 34% in 2024, and the use of blockchain technologies increased from 8% to 35%, respectively. A conceptual model of adaptive management has been developed that integrates early warning systems and rapid response mechanisms. The study forms a new paradigm of management in the context of permanent instability.