Fuzzy Logic Modeling of Regional Economy Development Scenarios

Abstract

In the present paper there is shown the application of the Fuzzy modeling method in solving the problem ofscenario forecasting ofregional development, based on the analysis coordination of the expert evaluation data and the data of regional statistics. A two-hierarchical fuzzy model with four input parameters, describing the development o f Chernivtsi region, two intermediate and one output parameter were built in Matlab2017b. The model included a set of 27 fuzzy rules and used the Mamdani methodfor fuzzy decision-making and fuzzy inference. Defuzzification was performed using the Center of Gravity method. Analysis of the regional statistics selected data of Chernivtsi region confirmed the adequacy andprospects of using the model. In particular, there has been identified the need to reduce significantly the unemployment rate to reach the threshold ofthe optimistic scenario development.